Effects of Climate Events on Abundance and Distribution of Major Commercial Fishes in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea

Improving prediction of ecological responses to climate variability requires understanding how local fish population dynamics are impacted by events. The present study was conducted in the Beibu Gulf northwestern South China Sea where fisheries characterized high and commercial value. We evaluated relationship between major (abundance distribution) periods, using survey data from 2006–2020. analysis random forest GAM models show that events not best predictors for variations abundance, because abundance most stocks decreases significantly with year, increasing fishing pressure over time can better explain overall downward trend fishery stocks. However, environmental variables correlate interannual variation ONI may impact short terms. Our research suggests leading higher surface seawater salinity winter favors pelagic fishes improving habitat availability, near-surface chlorophyll-α concentration during La Niña provides food condition overwintering fish. In addition, there is no clear evidence climatic have a significant on gravity center distribution, whereas change has caused move cooler coastal waters north.